February 2008


That’s hard to say five times fast.  I just came across Tracy Sheridan’s blog, “The Long Blonde Tail,” but I’m happy I did.  From September 2007 to January 2008 she posted several concise summaries of many of  the Singularity Summit 2007 presentations.  I attended that conference (and the one prior) and I took lots notes but I wasn’t doing much writing at the time and we were packing for a big move.  Thus, my notes have been temporarily misplaced (lost forever). 

It’s great to have short summaries of the event, so I recommend checking out her blog if you didn’t attend.  You can also view all the recorded presentations from the event here.  The SIAI website has evolved nicely over the last couple of years, no doubt thanks to the good work of Tyler Emerson with a wealth of resources and content available now.  Go check it out. 

The term “Singularity“ has a lot of baggage, but it’s not a topic anyone who thinks about the future of technology and humanity can reasonably avoid.  IMO, if it’s not the central concept, it’s at least the underlying meme of a majority (maybe 65%) of the medium-term to long-term forecasting work that is happening today (outside of corporate foresight / environmental futures work).  I can’t back that up – just my belief.  Then again, I’m pretty familiar with the general concepts and many of the common issues associated with the Singularity (actually, there are several different notions of what consistutes “The Singularity” – the two most common being Vinge’s definition and Kurzweil’s definition), so I am probably falling prey to the availability heuristic here. 

On that 65%…. please disagree if you do, and if you have any data to back it up, even better!

Or perhaps, the Machine is Amusing Us? I think this is very amusing, despite loathing the term “Web 2.0″ (cringe).

Jamais Cascio (of WorldChanging and OpenTheFuture fame, among others) gave a talk at UC Berkeley’s iSchool on Tuesday, 2/5/08, entitled “Futurism and it’s Discontents.”  Abstract below:

In a rapidly-changing, uncertain environment, the ability to think constructively about various future possibilities is more important than ever. “Foresight Specialists”, “Scenario Planners”, “Trend Spotters” and good old “Futurists” provide a specialized service that few businesses, non-profits, and governments have organically — and fewer still recognize that they need. I’ll talk about why today’s futurism has more to do with imagining the possible than thinking the unthinkable, why futurist ethics matters more than futurist economics, and whether futurism might just be the best job out there for the easily-distracted generalist.”

Oh, how I would have loved to have attended this.  I can’t agree more with Jamais, particularly the part about futurism being the best job out there for the easily-distracted generalist.  I know a few of those types, and I’ve been called worse.

It brings me great joy to report that an audio recording of this talk has been posted.

There were two events on my radar this week, but I couldn’t attend either of them. Sometimes I wish I could be in two places at once. Actually, I wish that all the time. At this point, I’d settle for more streaming video.

The first event that got me fired up was Nissam Taleb’s talk about his recent book, Black Swan, on Monday, 2/04/08 at the SALT. As I said, I wasn’t able to attend, but Steward Brand did send out a brief email summary, so I’m pretty fired up about listening/watching the talk in the days to come. Truth be told, I have not yet read Black Swan (only barely skimmed it), but I skimmed the good parts.

Here’s what Steward Brand said in the email following the talk, in all it’s CTRL-C and CTRL-V glory, if you didn’t receive the email yourself.

A ‘black swan,’ Taleb explained, is an event which is 1) Hard to predict; 2) Highly consequential; 3) Wrongly retro-predicted. We pretend we know why the big event happened, and so entrench our inability to deal with the next world-changing improbable event.

Examples: Viagra, 9/11, Harry Potter, First World War, Beatles, the PC, Google, and the rise of any successful religion. History is dominated by sudden, lasting changes wrought by deeply unexpected events.Part of the problem is that we ignore the ’silent evidence’ of the nonobserved and nonobservable. We compute probability from the success of survivors. No one writes or reads a book titled ‘How I Lost a Million Dollars.’ Another problem is that we revise our own predictions and intentions unconsciously to match what actually happens. We disguise having been wrong by pretending we were right. This is ‘confirmation bias.’

There are TWO kinds of randomness, two realms in which events happen…

Mediocristan is dominated by the average— one new observation won’t change much. If you are measuring the weight of a large sample of humans, adding the heaviest person in the world won’t change the result, whereas measuring the average wealth of a large sample of humans would be transformed by adding the wealthiest person. Mediocristan is the realm of the Law of Large Numbers and of the Gaussian Bell Curve.

Extremistan is dominated by extremes. Every year 16,000 books are published in English. A handful of best-sellers absolutely dominate. This is the realm of the power-law curve and the Long Tail. Extremistant defies prediction. You can say there will be a few monsters and lots of midgets and the world will be changed by the monsters, and that’s all you can say.

Benoit Mandelbrot convinced Taleb that the main dynamic of Mediocristan is energy, and the main dynamic of Extremistan is information. Anything social is Extremistan.

Thus there are two kinds of experts. A soufflé chef really is an expert and can be trusted. An economist is a pseudo-expert. “Never take advice from someone wearing a tie.” All you get from a Council of Economic Advisors is an illusion of control. Stock market analysts have proved to be worse than nothing.

Don’t focus on probability. Focus on consequences. Black Swans will come. Prepare against the negative ones; be ready to soar with the positive ones.

Pay attentive heed to tradition and old people— they have experienced more Black Swans.” –Stewart Brand

To be totally transparent, I am only part way through Taleb’s earlier book, Fooled by Randomness. Since I read several books at a time, going back and forth, I often don’t finish anything for several months, then finish several books at about the same time. I’m hoping to thwart this tendency and just crank through these. Taleb’s short narrative of the Ludic fallacy (yes, which I found on Wikipedia) is simultaneously hilarious and horrifying:
We love tangible, the confirmation, the palpable, the real, the visible, the concrete, the known, the seen, the vivid, the visual, the social, the embedded, the emotional laden, the salient, the stereotypical, the moving, the theatrical, the romanced, the cosmetic, the official, the scholarly-sounding verbiage (b******t), the pompous Gaussian economist, the mathematicized crap, the pomp, the Academie Francaise, Harvard Business School, the Nobel Prize, dark business suits with white shirts and Ferragamo ties, the moving discourse, and the lurid. Most of all we favor the narrated.
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Alas, we are not manufactured, in our current edition of the human race, to understand abstract matters – we need context. Randomness and uncertainty are abstractions. We respect what has happened, ignoring what could have happened. In other words, we are naturally shallow and superficial – and we do not know it. This is not a psychological problem; it comes from the main property of information. The dark side of the moon is harder to see; beaming light on it costs energy. In the same way, beaming light on the unseen is costly in both computational and mental effort.” –Nassim Nicholas Taleb

P.S. I do enjoy how “Nobel Prize” rhymes with”Ferragamo ties.”

On 1/24/08, news of an important step to further the construction of synthetic organisms was reported by a team at the J. Craig Venter Institute. The team successfully engineered (“synthesized and assembled”) the genome of the mycoplasma genitalium bacteria using off-the-shelf genetic material (i.e. adenine, guanine, thymine, cytosine). According to the press release, the team used a process known as homologous recombination to build the genome from the aforementioned pool of genetic stuff.

The mycoplasma genitalium is the smallest free-living bacterium and supposedly has the smallest genome of any organism (viruses don’t count). So, you say, what this team did is really, really tiny, right? In fact, it’s so tiny it’s not really a big deal? Well, you may say that, but I would say you are wrong. This is a very big deal because up until this point the team had only been able to synthesize a 32,000 base pair genome. The genome of the little bacterium Venter’s synthesized is a whopping 582,970 base pairs (for this organism, that’s about 500 genes).

This effort was step two of a three step process which Craig Venter’s team hopes will result in the creation of novel organisms. I won’t bore (or fascinate) you with the details of the second step, which is actually composed of many complex substeps, but you can read about it in press releases or better yet, in the original Science article. Actually, one of these substeps had something to do with disrupting a gene to block “infectivity.” I’m not really sure what that means, but if it means not expressing a gene that will cause the bacterium to get infected by something (like a virus), that sounds great! Somehow, I don’t think I’m on the right track. Anyhow, back to the third big step in this overall process. According to Dan Gibson, the lead author of the paper, “the ultimate goal of inserting the synthetic chromosome into a cell and booting it up to create the first synthetic organism.” Like I said, this is a big, highly contentious deal.

Practitioners in the field of synthetic genomics / synthetic biology aim to create novel organisms. Synthetic biology essentially combines modern engineering and informatics with the biological sciences. Using phrases like “boot up,” they sometimes sound more like computer scientists than biologists. Some of them actually are computer scientists. This research may someday (perhaps sooner than most people imaging) lead to new organisms which could lead to high-yield, disease resistant crops (already being done with different methods) or particularly in a dystopian scenario, highly-infectious, super-deadly viruses that can’t be killed. In a similar vein, Monsanto’s RoundUp Ready® corn is critter and weed resistant and that germinates only when it’s sprayed. That stuff has apparently made it’s way into the fields of unwitting, farmers, according to the documentary, The Future of Food. Monsanto’s products are GMO (genetically modified organisms), which I suppose is a broad bucket in which synthetic biology could fall, but there are significant distinctions. Venter’s team is trying to create entirely new thinks rather than just tinkering with natures already-existing things.

Synthetic Genomics (from the namesake of the field), is Venter’s other company. SG is pioneering novel approaches to create synthetic biological systems intended to solve big problems (opportunities) like cleaning up environmental pollution, the sequestration of carbon, and the creation of clean and renewable energy sources etc. Of course, SG will patent these novel life forms, just as Monsanto does with it’s GMO crops and other products.

Later, I’ll write about the specific ethical controversies of this technology and how it broadly applies to nanotechnology, but for now, enjoy this talk Venter gave at the TED 2005 Conference.